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SAC Sectional Semifinal Game Predictions: Possible Upsets, Rematches, and Revenge Fill the Trick-Or-Treat Basket

6A

Snider (5-4) at Homestead (8-1)

With Halloween upcoming, there may not be anything scarier for defenses than to see Evan Ormsby on the other side of the field. If you really wanted to pinpoint the game where Ormsby really took off, it would have been the first time that these two teams saw each other in week 5. Since that week, Ormsby has passed for 1,471 yards and 24 touchdowns, while completing at least 50% of his passes in each game. Some have gone as far as to call him the best quarterback in the SAC, despite only making All-SAC second team behind two other very talented quarterbacks. There’s certainly a case to be made, and perhaps no one has benefitted more than his receiver Nate Anderson. Anderson has gone for 100 yards or more receiving in all but one game since week 5. While the Spartans bring in offensive firepower, the Panthers come in with one of the more dominant defenses in the league. As it turns out, that week 5 meeting wasn’t just a turning point for Homestead, but for Snider as well. They won 3 of their last 4, and the defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points since their loss to the Spartans. Snider’s own offense can be electrifying and RB Tyrese Brown will provide a challenge for the Homestead defense. Homestead could be held in check for a while, but their defense should keep Snider from mounting a lead on the scoreboard, jolting the Spartans to another victory over the Panthers.  

Trick or Treat: Homestead survives a scare to Snider, but a 28-17 win is nothing to freak out about.

Carroll (7-2) at Warsaw (7-2)

Every Carroll win in the regular season was by double digits. In fact, many of those games were won by at least 30 points. That’s what happens when your offense can score in big plays in big volumes. QB Jeff Becker ran the fun-and-gun offense to perfection this year with 2,331 yards and 31 touchdowns. Perhaps his most impressive stat is his 60% completion percentage. For how often Carroll threw the ball downfield, it’s amazing that most of those plays resulted in completions. While the Chargers moved the ball up and down the playing surface like it was a basketball game, the defense is cause for concern in 6A. While they still put up gaudy offensive numbers against Homestead, the Chargers lost by 29. How? By allowing the Spartans to score 70 and break multiple school records in the process. Warsaw is another team that can score a lot of points, so Carroll will either need to figure things out on defense, or outscore the Tigers.

Opponent Analysis: Warsaw finished at the top of their conference this year, as the only 6A school, and had a particular way of doing so: scoring. Warsaw can match you touchdown for touchdown, albeit in a different style than Carroll does it. The Tigers appear to be obsessed with running the football. In their most recent game against Concord, they ran the ball 55 times and threw it on only 3 occasions. That is completely insane, but it worked for the Tigers this season. This could be a problem spot for the Chargers, who don’t possess a particularly effective run defense. Either way, if you love points, then this is the game for you.

Trick or Treat: Treat! Carroll grabs a king-size 56-42 win over Warsaw.

5A

Northrop (4-5) at North Side (4-5)

Welcome to the North Side (mini) revenge tour. Our first stop: Northrop. The Bruins clung to a 28-27 final to give themselves the win at home in a competitive game with North Side. They had a good offensive output in that game, with Damarius Cowen rushing for his second highest total on the year, a 257 yard, 3 touchdown game. The defense was the real standout in this game however, being only the third team this season to hold the Legends to under 30 points. Though it’s only been three weeks since that game, these two teams finished their seasons in dramatically different ways. After the loss, the Legends rebounded to score a huge win in overtime over Concordia, while Northrop fell flat on the road at Dwenger. Can North Side break through and rewrite the script from their first game, possibly moving them to their second destination at Dwenger, or will Northrop prove that their first meeting wasn’t a fluke. 

Trick or Treat: Take two Legends! We’ll see you next week after a 40-20 win over Northrop.

Anderson (2-7) at Bishop Dwenger (8-1)

What more can we really say about Dwenger? They’re the favorite to win their sectional once again and just like last year they’ve seen tremendous leadership from their seniors. QB Brenden Lytle threw his most consistent and mistake-free season that he’s had in his career, resulting in the highest QBR that he’s had, an impressive 124.7 that ranks higher than both Jeff Becker and Evan Ormsby’s. His 6’4” wideout Rocco Ciocca will be interesting to follow over the course of this postseason as he’s had some of his best games against 5A schools like North Side. Ciocca currently has 30 receptions for 608 yards and 6 touchdowns, his size giving himself a discernible advantage over defenders on jump balls. Then, there’s the defense that passed Concordia for the lowest amount of points allowed, with 120 all year, only 13.3 a game. While it would be easy for any team to simply not take Anderson as a serious threat, Dwenger prides themselves on treating every opponent with the same care, which is in part why they rarely lose to teams they shouldn’t. With that being said, it’s really hard to come up with a scenario in which the Indians win this game.

Opponent Analysis: Anderson hasn’t had a whole lot to be proud of this year. They’ve not found a preferred option at quarterback yet and their running game has been woeful, a 3.3 yard average as a team. Their defense hasn’t been much better, averaging well over 30 points a game. Their two wins came against teams with equal or worse records than them and they won by a total of 9 points between those two games. Mismatches abound, the Saints seem to have a clear advantage in this game, especially coming from a more competitive conference. 

Trick or Treat: Treat! Load the bag, Dwenger’s taking home a bounty of sweets in a 42-0 shutout of Anderson.

4A

Wayne (2-8) at Delta (7-2)

Wayne found a way to win last week against Huntington North. It took a gutsy effort from their defense to keep them in the game and the offense delivered late when they had to. QB Christian Trimble emerged as the hero with the sophomore tossing 2 touchdown passes in the win. He will almost certainly start this game. He’ll be joined in the backfield by a trio of runners. Wayne’s leading rusher Chris Thomas missed last week’s game but Shawn Collins and Lamarion Nelson picked up the slack for a solid 174 yard team total. This week, the key will be staying aggressive on defense and making the most of opportunities on both sides of the ball. The Generals might have won last week but they had plenty more opportunities throughout the game to create turnovers and make big plays through the air. If they can convert big plays and keep the momentum in their favor, they have a good shot to win this one.

Opponent Analysis: Delta is a good team overall. Senior QB Brady Hunt has been effective for them both as a passer and as a runner. He has 943 yards and 12 passing touchdowns, while coming up with 523 yards and 5 touchdowns rushing. He could be a handful for Wayne to stop along with RB Evan Conley. While the Eagles have used multiple running backs this season, Conley has been their main man with 872 yards, 7.7 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns. A common theme on this team is experience, with the majority of their starters being upperclassmen, in contrast to most of Wayne’s starters playing their first full seasons. It’s crucial to have those kinds of players at this time of year and with Delta holding a sizable advantage in that area, it could make all the difference in this game.

Trick or Treat: Trick! Wayne should have all lot of positives to take away from this game, but the final score will leave a bitter taste in their mouths, a 21-12 loss to Delta.

South Side (2-8) at Marion (7-3)

Talk about a huge victory for Coach Norfleet and his South Side Archers last week. Their decisive 30-20 win over New Haven gave them their second win of the year and was remicicient of their 33-9 sectional win over Leo a few years ago. Now comes the hard part, the encore. Is the South Side up to the task at Marion? QB Quincy English certainly gives them reason to believe after passing for 111 yards and a touchdown in a steady, strong performance from the junior. English started to see playing time towards the end of the year and has proven to be a consistent option for the Archers at that position. If you remember back to last year, we were saying the same thing about Duce Taylor at North Side, after he came in late in the year and looked promising before exploding and taking his game to a new level in 2020. But as far as this game goes, English and a nice rushing attack aided the Archers well in a good showing for the offense. Having a star end like Trevor Hapner on defense has also given South Side some confidence in their defense. If they can hold Marion in check, they’ll give their offense a great chance to win just like last week.

Opponent Analysis: The Giants have seen solid play from their team all year. They’ve beaten the teams that they should beat and have played good teams in higher classes hard. It’s really thanks to RB Khalid Stamps, who you may recall had 196 yards, 8.9 a carry, and a touchdown in Marion’s blowout win over fellow SAC member Wayne last year. This season, he broke the 1,000 yard mark, averaged right near 10 yards per carry, and has 11 touchdowns. You can’t ask for much more than that. The Giants’ defense is a strength as well, with LB Marques Smith being their premier defender with a team-leading 91 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 4 forced turnovers. South Side will likely load the box on defense to counter Marion’s run-heavy offense. The Archers didn’t fare as well against other running teams like Northrop and Dwenger, so the area of this game to watch for South Side fans will be their rush defense and seeing how they handle Stamps. 

Trick or Treat: Trick! South Side comes home empty, in a 28-19 loss to Marion.

3A

Concordia (4-5) at Oak Hill (7-3)

Following an unexpected week off after Peru was forced to forfeit, the Cadets are back in action at Oak Hill. The main story for Concordia this year has been their dominant defense and lackluster offense. It’s been strange seeing this team struggle on offense with how good they’ve been on that side of the ball in recent years. Covid has had a profound impact on this team, but it’s still strange to see a player like Brandon Davis struggle. The Concordia quarterback missed two games early in the year, but even then his stats aren’t even half of what they were last year. His yardage and touchdowns are both way down at this point from where they were last year. RB Amir Drew is also having a hard time in the backfield. Though he has 826 yards this year, his yards per carry average is only a 4.7, a drop from last year. While the offense has had its share of difficulties, the defense has flourished, allowing more than 20 points on only 3 occasions and allowing an average of 14.7 points per game. They’ll need to rely on that defense to carry them through the postseason, but this unit is capable of doing so in 3A.

Opponent Analysis: Oak Hill finished the season with a very respectable 7-3 record. The problem is, and we’ve said for many of these other teams, they haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record and lost to all teams with a winning record. Against an SAC team that is pretty solid in their own right, Oak Hill will need to elevate their game to stay with the Cadets. Their best player statistically is Kyle Turanchick, who plays two-ways as a running back and linebacker. As a runner, Turanchick gobbled up 1,070 yards on the ground and had 18 touchdowns. Defensively, he’s the Golden Eagles leading tackler with 72 in total, 3 TFL, and 2 sacks. It would take a tremendous effort from him and this team to break through this defense and find a way to win.

Trick or Treat: Treat! The Cadets storm through the neighborhood and score big at each house. 42-14 Concordia.

2A

Bishop Luers (4-6) at Fairfield (9-0)

Luers is a dark horse to win their sectional. It will be tough against the likes of Fairfield and Eastside, but the Knights have the personnel to do it. Carson Clark led Luers in their blowout win over Whiko last week. The southpaw QB threw for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging over 20 yards per pass, in the win. RB Sir Hale also had over 100 yards rushing and receiving with 2 touchdowns. Things won’t come that easy this week, but the Knights offense is capable of scoring lots of points on any given Friday. If their defense, which has ranked as one of the worst in the SAC this year, can just get a couple key stops or turnovers in this game, they could pull off the upset.  

Opponent Analysis: Fairfield has been ranked as one of the best 2A teams in the state for the majority of the season. Their offensive and defensive averages have been insane: 38.1 points per game on offense and only 8.2 points allowed on defense. Every one of their 9 wins has been by double-digits. 4A Angola came the closest to beating the Falcons, but still lost by 12. Fairfield and Eastside seem destined to face each other in the sectional championship game, but Luers is ready to crash the party. Fairfield will have to play well to beat the Knights and it will likely take a good showing from their offense to pull this one out.

Trick or Treat: Treat! Halloween isn’t that scary right? The Knights fend off the creatures lurking in the night to secure a 30-24 win.

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